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We use a collection of large ensembles to present six different compound event case studies that illustrate the benefit and limitations of large ensembles, from precipitation-wind extremes to temporally compounding crop failures in bread-basket regions.

Twin sets of decadal prediction hindcasts using the CESM1 model are compared, one that includes volcanic aerosol

aerosols

Small particles or droplets, such as wildfire smoke, volcanic gases, or salty sea spray, that float in the air. They are emitted by both natural events and human activities.

Source: NASA Global Climate Change Source

forcing (Volc) and one that does not (NoVolc). The experiments are similar to those proposed for component C of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) protocol for CMIP6, but here the NoVolc set includes all initializations between 1954-2015, thus permitting a first-ever assessment of global skill impacts as a function of lead time.

High school students become model bridge engineers in annual contest. The annual contest puts model bridges constructed by Long Island High School students to the ultimate pressure test. Students apply physics and engineering principles to build basswood structures to a set of specifications.

Accurate long-term measurement of aerosol light absorption

absorption

The mechanism through which energy (e.g., solar or infrared) is converted into heat and contributes to the overall warming of the Earth's atmosphere and surface.

Source: NOAA Source

is vital for estimating direct aerosol radiative forcing. At the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility's Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory, light absorption by ambient aerosols is measured using the particle soot absorption photometer (PSAP).

Black carbon

black carbon

The sooty black material emitted from gas and diesel engines, coal-fired power plants, and other sources that burn fossil fuel. It comprises a significant portion of particulate matter or PM, which is an air pollutant.

Source: EPA Source

(BC) aerosol dominates the absorption of incoming shortwave solar radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere, thereby strongly impacting regional and global climate. Understanding and parameterizing the influences of BC particle morphology

morphology

The science of the form and structure of organisms (plants, animals, and other forms of life).

Source: National Cancer Institute Source

and compositional heterogeneity on its light absorption is a fundamental problem in atmospheric sciences.

Atmospheric aerosols significantly affect climate processes, both directly via their interaction with solar radiation and indirectly by acting as seeds for warm and cold cloud formation. But their molecular composition, especially during the day and night above agricultural fields, is not well understood.

Warming tropical waters can trigger changes in winds that both strengthen and push hurricanes to the U.S. East and Gulf coasts more often, boosting hurricane frequency by a third compared to current levels. Hurricanes will become stronger and strike more often on the U.S. Gulf and lower East coasts, according to the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Managing water usage is crucial for sustainable development and economic growth, as water is a limited resource. To help plan for the future, researchers created a detailed dataset of scenarios of global water usage from 2010 to 2100. This dataset considers factors, such as climate and socioeconomic

socioeconomic

A way of describing groups based on their education, income, or job type. Socioeconomic status is usually described as low, medium, and high.

Source: National Cancer Institute Source

changes, and breaks down water usage by sectors such as agriculture, industry, and domestic use.

Prediction of atmospheric ice crystal formation is crucial to improve the representation of cold clouds and the hydrological cycle. Recent experimental and computational advances relevant for our understanding of atmospheric ice nucleation are reviewed.

Focused on improving the accuracy of climate predictions, a Sandia-led computational team recently achieved a major milestone with a cloud-resolving model they ran on Frontier, the world’s first exascale supercomputer. The E3SM

Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project includes Earth System Models, simulations, and predictions to investigate energy-relevant science using code optimized for DOE's advanced supercomputers.

Source: NVCL Web Page Source

model simulates critical aspects of Earth’s climate system that might impact conditions in the U.S. in the coming decades.

African easterly waves (AEWs) are disturbances that often serve as precursors for tropical cyclones (TCs) developing in the Atlantic Ocean. Thus, it's important to understand the relationship between AEWs and TCs, and how this relation may be affected by climate change.

climate change

A change in the average conditions — such as temperature and rainfall — in a region over a long period of time.

Source: NASA Climate Kids Source

This research shows that future changes in the number of AEWs are not a good indicator of future changes in the number of TCs.

Boggy peatlands,

peatland

Located within a terrestrial wetland environment where plant material cannot entirely decompose due to the presence of water.

Source: International Peatland Society Source

which hold much of the Earth’s carbon as well as material that can be converted to energy, are made up heavily of sphagnum mosses. New research identifies sex chromosomes in the plant and illuminates the significant role sex plays in how the moss grows, stores carbon and responds to stress.